Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Stenlund 51.2% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 83.8%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 66.1%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Nelson
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Nelson
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
54.4% (592)
-8.3%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
42.9% (14)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
44.1% (229)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stenlund
Home
48.7% (419)
50.7% (402)
Away
41.3% (368)
52.0% (433)
By Period
Nelson
Stenlund
P1
44.6%
56.5%
P2
47.3%
52.4%
P3
43.0%
45.2%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Stenlund
48.0%▼
53.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |