Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Stenlund 58.3% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 87.5%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 50.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Nelson
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Stenlund
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Stenlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
2
Nelson
Stenlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
2
Nelson
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
58.6% (797)
-7.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
62.5% (24)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
60.5% (233)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stenlund
Home
52.5% (590)
58.6% (548)
Away
51.7% (619)
59.7% (506)
By Period
Nelson
Stenlund
P1
50.5%
60.2%
P2
54.4%
59.1%
P3
51.4%
58.3%
OT
47.4%
58.6%
Final 5 min
57.3%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Stenlund
48.0%▼
53.5%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 15:19 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 16:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:10 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |