Scouting Report
Connor Dewar holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Dewar shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Dewar 47.5% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 76.2%
Defensive zone
Dewar 58.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Nelson
Dewar
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nelson
Dewar
Last 6: Nelson 1-5 Dewar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
3
Nelson
Dewar
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
1
Nelson
Dewar
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Dewar
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dewar
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
46.2% (331)
-0.1%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
45.5% (11)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
50.0% (68)
-19.6%
On penalty kill, Dewar has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dewar shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Dewar is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dewar
Home
48.7% (419)
43.9% (189)
Away
41.3% (368)
49.3% (221)
By Period
Nelson
Dewar
P1
44.6%
50.4%
P2
47.3%
50.0%
P3
43.0%
40.8%
Final 5 min
39.4%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Dewar
46.0%▬
46.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |