Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 34.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Kuraly 49.5% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 89.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 64.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 74.4%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Mercer
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Mercer
Kuraly
Last 7: Mercer 2-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
4
Mercer
Kuraly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
52.3% (982)
-16.9%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
41.9% (43)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
39.2% (245)
-39.2%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +39.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Mercer is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Mercer shoots right. Kuraly is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (411).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kuraly
Home
39.9% (283)
50.3% (680)
Away
31.3% (307)
48.5% (590)
By Period
Mercer
Kuraly
P1
37.7%
49.5%
P2
32.1%
49.6%
P3
37.7%
49.0%
OT
0.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
33.3%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
35.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:26 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 2 | 02:42 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 3 | 04:51 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 6, 2022 | 2 | 16:35 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 2 | 08:37 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 31, 2021 | 1 | 04:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |