Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Kuraly 48.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 81.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 78.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 59.5%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Mercer
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Mercer
Kuraly
Last 5: Mercer 2-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
3
Mercer
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
49.4% (445)
-5.8%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
100.0% (3)
-50.0%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
41.9% (117)
+28.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Kuraly is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kuraly
Home
41.7% (120)
49.2% (248)
Away
47.6% (145)
47.3% (317)
By Period
Mercer
Kuraly
P1
44.6%
48.3%
P2
45.4%
44.7%
P3
45.2%
51.7%
Final 5 min
48.6%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
44.9%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 03:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 16:21 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:07 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |