Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Kuraly 53.7% (-13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 58.2%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 92.1%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 74.9%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 92.1%
7.9%
92.1%
Mercer
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
55.3% (515)
-14.3%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
55.6% (9)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
44.8% (58)
-8.4%
On power play, Kuraly has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mercer shoots right. Kuraly is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kuraly
Home
45.2% (126)
57.3% (293)
Away
35.1% (111)
51.2% (289)
By Period
Mercer
Kuraly
P1
34.5%
53.8%
P2
43.4%
51.5%
P3
45.8%
57.6%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
40.5%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |