Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 35.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 42.2% vs Kuraly 49.2% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 58.9%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 91.8%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 74.5%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 91.8%
8.2%
91.8%
Mercer
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (254)
50.8% (370)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (9)
44.1% (127)
+11.5%
On even strength, Kuraly has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Mercer is 35.8% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Mercer shoots right. Kuraly is 41.8% vs right-shot opponents (194).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kuraly
Home
34.1% (126)
52.8% (269)
Away
43.8% (144)
44.7% (228)
By Period
Mercer
Kuraly
P1
31.3%
53.2%
P2
44.0%
45.8%
P3
43.7%
47.9%
Final 5 min
35.4%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |