Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Kuraly 51.0% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 60.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 93.6%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 74.3%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 93.6%
6.4%
93.6%
Mercer
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
52.6% (464)
-13.8%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
100.0% (1)
-64.7%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
46.5% (155)
+8.0%
On power play, Kuraly has a +64.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Home / Away
Mercer
Kuraly
Home
35.2% (145)
55.9% (322)
Away
43.2% (146)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Mercer
Kuraly
P1
32.7%
55.9%
P2
42.7%
46.7%
P3
42.9%
50.7%
Final 5 min
39.2%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |