Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 45.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 71.6%
Defensive zone
Mercer 68.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 70.5%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Mercer
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Mercer
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Mercer
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Mercer
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (148)
54.1% (1,117)
-10.9%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
59.8% (296)
-19.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
34.4% (32)
-5.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mercer is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (122).
Mercer shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hertl
Home
39.0% (82)
54.3% (709)
Away
45.8% (83)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Mercer
Hertl
P1
45.5%
51.6%
P2
44.0%
53.6%
P3
36.7%
58.6%
Final 5 min
36.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
42.4%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 09:03 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |