Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 40.0% vs Hertl 54.1% (-14.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 79.0%
Defensive zone
Mercer 72.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 78.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Mercer
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Mercer
Hertl
Last 10: Mercer 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
0
Mercer
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
7
Mercer
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Mercer
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,403)
53.6% (8,077)
-14.5%
Power Play
41.3% (80)
59.7% (1,916)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (44)
46.0% (793)
-5.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,085).
Mercer shoots right. Hertl is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (4,031).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hertl
Home
40.0% (737)
55.6% (5,217)
Away
38.6% (790)
52.7% (5,569)
By Period
Mercer
Hertl
P1
38.0%
53.6%
P2
39.3%
53.9%
P3
41.3%
55.1%
OT
0.0%
46.8%
Final 5 min
39.0%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3 | 13:38 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3 | 02:56 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 09:03 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | OT | 03:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 00:39 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |