Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Hertl 54.3% (-15.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 79.0%
Defensive zone
Mercer 71.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 76.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
Mercer
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Mercer
Hertl
Last 10: Mercer 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
0
Mercer
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
7
Mercer
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Mercer
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
53.9% (8,303)
-14.8%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
59.2% (1,995)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
46.3% (806)
-5.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hertl
Home
40.1% (756)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
38.5% (792)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Mercer
Hertl
P1
38.2%
53.6%
P2
39.2%
54.2%
P3
41.2%
55.3%
OT
0.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
39.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3 | 13:38 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3 | 02:56 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 09:03 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | OT | 03:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 00:39 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |