Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +18.0% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 35.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 42.2% vs Hertl 56.6% (-18.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 59.5%
Defensive zone
Mercer 70.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 71.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Mercer
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Mercer
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Mercer
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (254)
56.6% (632)
-17.6%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
58.7% (206)
-30.1%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (9)
63.6% (22)
-8.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +30.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mercer is 35.8% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Mercer shoots right. Hertl is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hertl
Home
34.1% (126)
59.7% (434)
Away
43.8% (144)
54.9% (426)
By Period
Mercer
Hertl
P1
31.3%
51.0%
P2
44.0%
64.0%
P3
43.7%
57.8%
Final 5 min
35.4%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |