Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +18.9% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Hertl 57.5% (-18.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 56.4%
Defensive zone
Mercer 68.1%
Neutral zone
Mercer 74.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Mercer
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Mercer
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Mercer
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
58.7% (858)
-19.9%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
55.8% (285)
-20.5%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
62.9% (35)
-8.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hertl
Home
35.2% (145)
60.1% (599)
Away
43.2% (146)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Mercer
Hertl
P1
32.7%
52.4%
P2
42.7%
63.9%
P3
42.9%
58.5%
Final 5 min
39.2%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |