Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (-12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 65.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 87.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 70.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 76.4%
23.6%
76.4%
Mercer
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Mercer
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Mercer
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
0
Mercer
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
57.0% (718)
-13.4%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
64.9% (188)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
44.2% (77)
+25.8%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Mercer shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hertl
Home
41.7% (120)
59.2% (463)
Away
47.6% (145)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Mercer
Hertl
P1
44.6%
56.3%
P2
45.4%
55.4%
P3
45.2%
60.5%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
44.9%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3 | 13:38 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 3 | 02:56 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |