Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Novak 43.6% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 54.2%
Defensive zone
Malkin 51.3%
Neutral zone
Malkin 50.0%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Malkin
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Malkin
Novak
Last 6: Malkin 3-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Malkin
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,073)
42.2% (1,366)
+3.4%
Power Play
50.9% (643)
53.3% (120)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
50.0% (2)
-17.8%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,254).
Malkin shoots left. Novak is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (955).
Home / Away
Malkin
Novak
Home
47.6% (5,385)
46.0% (737)
Away
44.0% (5,413)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Malkin
Novak
P1
45.9%
43.9%
P2
46.2%
44.2%
P3
45.2%
40.9%
OT
49.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
45.8%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 09:41 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |