Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 48.7% vs Aho 52.2% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 58.5%
Defensive zone
Frost 58.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Frost
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Frost
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Frost
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (426)
51.6% (819)
-4.2%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
58.4% (173)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
46.3% (67)
-26.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Frost is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (312).
Frost shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Frost
Aho
Home
51.1% (221)
53.9% (568)
Away
45.9% (246)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Frost
Aho
P1
47.5%
55.4%
P2
52.3%
51.2%
P3
44.7%
50.9%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
43.4%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
48.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:39 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:31 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 07:57 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 05:59 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |