Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 54.9% vs Aho 50.4% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 70.1%
Defensive zone
Aho 66.2%
Neutral zone
Aho 70.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 70.4%
29.6%
70.4%
Frost
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Frost
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Frost
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Frost
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (521)
50.5% (647)
+3.6%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
54.2% (131)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
38.1% (42)
+61.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +61.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Frost is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (458).
Frost shoots left. Aho is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (531).
Home / Away
Frost
Aho
Home
57.2% (339)
53.9% (445)
Away
54.0% (328)
46.4% (375)
By Period
Frost
Aho
P1
58.2%
48.7%
P2
55.6%
51.4%
P3
52.9%
50.8%
OT
60.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
52.3%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
55.6%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |