Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Aho 50.5% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 55.7%
Defensive zone
Aho 55.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 57.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Frost
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Frost
Aho
Last 5: Frost 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Frost
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
50.5% (878)
+5.5%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
53.5% (144)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
44.3% (61)
+44.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +44.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Frost shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Frost
Aho
Home
57.3% (497)
53.8% (571)
Away
56.8% (440)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Frost
Aho
P1
60.2%
49.0%
P2
56.0%
51.7%
P3
54.8%
50.3%
OT
63.6%
58.8%
Final 5 min
52.6%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |