Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 51.3%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Aho 51.3% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 22-15 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 52.4%
Defensive zone
Frost 50.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 54.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Frost
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
22
(37 meetings)
15
22
Frost
Aho
Last 10: Frost 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
5
12
Frost
Aho
17 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Frost
Aho
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
Frost
Aho
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
50.2% (6,646)
-0.5%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
58.9% (1,310)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
46.5% (465)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Frost shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Frost
Aho
Home
51.4% (2,101)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Frost
Aho
P1
51.2%
51.1%
P2
51.3%
52.1%
P3
48.8%
50.8%
OT
64.9%
48.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 13:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 14:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 01:18 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 01:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 18:17 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 14:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 05:51 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 01:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 04:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |