Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Frost wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Aho 51.2% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 50.0%
Defensive zone
Frost 56.5%
Neutral zone
Frost 63.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Frost
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Frost
Aho
Last 10: Frost 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
5
Frost
Aho
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Frost
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
48.5% (778)
-2.9%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
63.4% (191)
-17.4%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
50.8% (65)
+4.8%
On power play, Aho has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Frost shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Frost
Aho
Home
47.0% (440)
51.3% (530)
Away
44.8% (511)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Frost
Aho
P1
42.5%
50.0%
P2
47.9%
51.3%
P3
46.6%
52.1%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
45.8%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 03:09 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:25 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 07:58 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 05:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 05:38 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 02:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |