Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.8% vs Sturm 53.6% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 70.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 52.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Dowd
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dowd
Sturm
Last 5: Dowd 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dowd
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (666)
54.6% (271)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
54.4% (90)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dowd is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (566).
Dowd shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Dowd
Sturm
Home
48.5% (466)
53.0% (168)
Away
48.8% (426)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Dowd
Sturm
P1
48.4%
58.2%
P2
46.8%
53.2%
P3
51.3%
52.3%
OT
30.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 11:51 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |