Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.9% vs Sturm 57.1% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 87.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 59.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 59.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 73.2%
26.8%
73.2%
Dowd
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Dowd
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Dowd
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (835)
62.1% (356)
-9.9%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
75.0% (4)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (350)
38.7% (62)
+5.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Dowd shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Dowd
Sturm
Home
51.5% (619)
61.8% (191)
Away
48.1% (576)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Dowd
Sturm
P1
51.7%
58.0%
P2
51.6%
57.9%
P3
47.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
48.1%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 12:32 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |