Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Sturm 55.2% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 95.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 81.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 68.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 81.8%
18.2%
81.8%
Dowd
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Dowd
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (625)
56.1% (716)
-0.9%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
67.7% (31)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (220)
51.1% (133)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Dowd shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Dowd
Sturm
Home
53.7% (445)
55.6% (412)
Away
47.7% (407)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Dowd
Sturm
P1
48.8%
59.6%
P2
49.3%
52.0%
P3
54.0%
55.5%
OT
44.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 11:13 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 03:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |