Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 53.0%). Dowd wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 53.3% vs Sturm 52.5% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 53.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 61.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Dowd
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Dowd
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (771)
54.0% (480)
+1.4%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
28.6% (7)
+28.5%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (165)
50.0% (102)
-4.5%
On power play, Dowd has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Dowd shoots right. Sturm is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Dowd
Sturm
Home
58.2% (462)
54.0% (287)
Away
49.3% (481)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Dowd
Sturm
P1
55.6%
53.5%
P2
50.5%
51.0%
P3
53.9%
55.1%
OT
75.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
53.1%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 06:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2022 | OT | 03:49 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |