Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.5% vs Sturm 54.1% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 74.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 51.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 61.3%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Dowd
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Dowd
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (485)
54.1% (233)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (186)
59.5% (74)
-19.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dowd is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (428).
Dowd shoots right. Sturm is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
Dowd
Sturm
Home
48.5% (307)
54.4% (149)
Away
50.3% (366)
56.3% (158)
By Period
Dowd
Sturm
P1
50.7%
57.1%
P2
49.1%
55.0%
P3
49.6%
53.7%
OT
30.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |