Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.8% vs Sturm 56.2% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 74.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 56.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 51.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Dowd
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Dowd
Sturm
Last 10: Dowd 3-7 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
5
Dowd
Sturm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
3
Dowd
Sturm
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (5,850)
57.1% (2,681)
-4.5%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
61.3% (62)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (1,600)
51.7% (482)
-7.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (5,015).
Dowd shoots right. Sturm is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,066).
Home / Away
Dowd
Sturm
Home
52.1% (3,753)
57.3% (1,595)
Away
49.6% (3,862)
55.5% (1,630)
By Period
Dowd
Sturm
P1
51.9%
56.4%
P2
50.7%
55.1%
P3
50.1%
57.6%
OT
45.9%
60.6%
Final 5 min
50.5%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 12:32 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 11:13 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 03:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 2 | 06:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2022 | OT | 03:49 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |