Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 52.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 50.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.9%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Paul
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Paul
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Paul
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Paul
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
56.3% (739)
-3.2%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
58.6% (181)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
47.2% (53)
+10.8%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Paul
Karlsson
Home
56.0% (466)
56.5% (462)
Away
52.7% (512)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Paul
Karlsson
P1
57.2%
57.1%
P2
54.9%
55.2%
P3
51.5%
56.7%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
54.3%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:54 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 01:14 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 19:32 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Nick Paul |