Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Karlsson 51.3% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 53.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 55.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 54.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Paul
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Paul
Karlsson
Last 10: Paul 4-6 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
2
3
Paul
Karlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Paul
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
6
Paul
Karlsson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
51.8% (7,849)
+0.8%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
54.8% (1,048)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
44.2% (1,109)
+2.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Paul shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
Paul
Karlsson
Home
52.8% (2,445)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Paul
Karlsson
P1
53.8%
50.3%
P2
51.0%
51.3%
P3
52.2%
52.4%
OT
50.0%
44.9%
Final 5 min
51.3%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:19 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 01:54 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 01:14 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 19:32 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 18:51 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:15 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:57 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 04:38 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 02:22 | Offensive | William Karlsson |