Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.0% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 52.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 65.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Paul
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Paul
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Paul
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (666)
58.6% (597)
-9.8%
Power Play
53.8% (65)
57.9% (57)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (55)
51.9% (52)
+8.1%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Paul shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Paul
Karlsson
Home
49.7% (348)
59.6% (344)
Away
50.2% (438)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Paul
Karlsson
P1
51.0%
53.1%
P2
47.4%
62.1%
P3
51.5%
60.1%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.0%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:19 | Neutral | William Karlsson |