Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +18.3% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 17.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 41.8% vs Novak 43.5% (-18.3%)
Offensive zone
Novak 64.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 54.7%
Neutral zone
Novak 52.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Kelly
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
22.9% (35)
40.7% (460)
-17.8%
Penalty Kill
27.3% (11)
0.0% (1)
+27.3%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kelly is 17.2% vs left-shot opponents (29).
Kelly shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Kelly
Novak
Home
23.8% (21)
47.0% (236)
Away
24.0% (25)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Kelly
Novak
P1
22.2%
43.1%
P2
23.5%
43.1%
P3
27.3%
40.1%
Final 5 min
20.0%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
22.0%▼
37.0%
23.9%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.2%