Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 41.4% vs Novak 43.6% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 90.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 69.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 61.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Kelly
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kelly
Novak
Last 6: Kelly 4-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kelly
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (722)
42.2% (1,366)
-0.6%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
53.3% (120)
-53.3%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (170)
50.0% (2)
-13.5%
On power play, Novak has a +53.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kelly is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (601).
Kelly shoots left. Novak is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (955).
Home / Away
Kelly
Novak
Home
42.2% (457)
46.0% (737)
Away
38.6% (438)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Kelly
Novak
P1
41.5%
43.9%
P2
44.9%
44.2%
P3
35.1%
40.9%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
34.8%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
22.0%▼
37.0%
40.4%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 06:23 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |