Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 34.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 39.9% vs Novak 44.9% (-10.4%)
Offensive zone
Novak 72.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 72.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 51.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Kelly
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
32.5% (123)
41.7% (206)
-9.2%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
52.6% (19)
-52.6%
On power play, Novak has a +52.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kelly is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (81).
Kelly shoots left. Novak is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Kelly
Novak
Home
31.7% (60)
44.9% (118)
Away
32.9% (73)
40.2% (107)
By Period
Kelly
Novak
P1
26.9%
41.5%
P2
34.3%
44.0%
P3
37.0%
42.0%
Final 5 min
31.3%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
22.0%▼
37.0%
32.3%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.7%