Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 37.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 41.4% vs Novak 42.5% (-4.4%)
Offensive zone
Novak 70.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 64.9%
Neutral zone
Kelly 54.8%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Kelly
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
36.5% (159)
40.4% (408)
-3.9%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
45.5% (33)
-45.5%
On power play, Novak has a +45.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kelly is 37.3% vs left-shot opponents (110).
Kelly shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Kelly
Novak
Home
35.4% (79)
42.0% (212)
Away
37.2% (94)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Kelly
Novak
P1
33.8%
41.9%
P2
36.5%
39.3%
P3
39.6%
42.1%
Final 5 min
37.8%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%