Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 45.8% vs Steel 48.8% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 85.2%
Defensive zone
Steel 53.1%
Neutral zone
Steel 76.5%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 69.4%
30.6%
69.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
5
(17 meetings)
12
5
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 7-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
4
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
7
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
4
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (527)
49.5% (553)
-4.1%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
61.3% (31)
-20.1%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (138)
30.6% (49)
+14.3%
On power play, Steel has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Steel is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (378).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
Home
46.1% (336)
46.4% (347)
Away
44.2% (346)
51.4% (286)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
P1
49.1%
52.1%
P2
45.3%
49.8%
P3
42.0%
45.2%
OT
25.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.2%
Steel
46.0%▼
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 19:26 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:53 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:21 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 04:03 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 11:58 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 17:42 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 09:53 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:22 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 10:03 | Offensive | Sam Steel |