Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Sam Steel
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% vs Steel 50.2% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 15-13 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 59.1%
Defensive zone
Steel 65.6%
Neutral zone
Steel 68.5%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 64.7%
35.3%
64.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
13
(28 meetings)
15
13
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 6-4 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
3
6
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
7
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
5
6
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (8,775)
50.6% (2,876)
-5.8%
Power Play
50.6% (844)
62.6% (179)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (880)
37.4% (254)
+0.4%
On power play, Steel has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,858).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
Home
46.5% (5,361)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
42.8% (5,150)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Steel
P1
45.1%
51.9%
P2
43.9%
49.5%
P3
45.2%
49.6%
OT
43.2%
41.9%
Final 5 min
43.6%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
44.7%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:04 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:03 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 16:10 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 19:26 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:53 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:21 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 04:03 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 11:58 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 17:42 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 09:53 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:22 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |