Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +17.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 34.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Hertl 52.3% (-17.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 61.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 58.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 58.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Mercer
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Mercer
Hertl
Last 7: Mercer 3-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
0
Mercer
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Mercer
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Mercer
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
51.6% (1,084)
-16.2%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
61.0% (246)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
44.1% (136)
-44.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +44.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mercer is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Mercer shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Mercer
Hertl
Home
39.9% (283)
55.2% (696)
Away
31.3% (307)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Mercer
Hertl
P1
37.7%
55.4%
P2
32.1%
54.8%
P3
37.7%
48.9%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
33.3%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
35.4%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | OT | 03:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 00:39 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |