Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.2% vs 42.6%). Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Novak wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Lewis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.5% vs Lewis 44.4% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 64.6%
Defensive zone
Lewis 74.5%
Neutral zone
Lewis 54.2%
Result
Trevor Lewis favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Novak
Lewis
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Novak
Lewis
Last 6: Novak 4-2 Lewis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
2
1
Novak
Lewis
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Novak
Lewis
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
0
Novak
Lewis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Lewis
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (460)
45.7% (210)
-5.0%
Power Play
61.5% (39)
71.4% (7)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
33.7% (95)
-33.7%
On penalty kill, Lewis has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lewis shoots right. Novak is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Novak shoots left. Lewis is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Home / Away
Novak
Lewis
Home
47.0% (236)
48.8% (166)
Away
37.9% (264)
35.6% (146)
By Period
Novak
Lewis
P1
43.1%
37.9%
P2
43.1%
46.7%
P3
40.1%
42.7%
Final 5 min
38.6%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.2%
Lewis
34.0%▼
46.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 13:30 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 1 | 05:25 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 10:37 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 05:15 | Offensive | Trevor Lewis |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Trevor Lewis |