Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Paul wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.4% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 62.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 63.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 66.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Paul
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Paul
Karlsson
Last 9: Paul 2-7 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Paul
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Paul
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
4
Paul
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (753)
55.3% (897)
-1.5%
Power Play
58.9% (90)
61.1% (113)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (78)
50.8% (132)
-3.4%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Paul shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Paul
Karlsson
Home
54.2% (450)
58.6% (560)
Away
53.3% (471)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Paul
Karlsson
P1
58.2%
55.8%
P2
50.6%
55.6%
P3
52.9%
55.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
53.7%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 18:51 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:15 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:57 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 04:38 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 02:22 | Offensive | William Karlsson |