Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 11 meetings). Tkachuk wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.0% vs Miller 54.9% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Tkachuk leads 16-15 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 87.8%
Defensive zone
Miller 88.3%
Neutral zone
Miller 57.8%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Tkachuk
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
15
(31 meetings)
16
15
Tkachuk
Miller
Last 10: Tkachuk 5-5 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
10
1
Tkachuk
Miller
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
11
Tkachuk
Miller
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
4
3
Tkachuk
Miller
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (1,574)
55.3% (6,690)
-6.4%
Power Play
51.4% (1,303)
58.0% (1,289)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
48.4% (919)
-3.4%
On power play, Miller has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,665).
Tkachuk shoots left. Miller is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,938).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Miller
Home
50.7% (1,435)
56.0% (4,622)
Away
49.3% (1,462)
53.8% (4,276)
By Period
Tkachuk
Miller
P1
49.4%
54.8%
P2
51.3%
55.7%
P3
49.1%
54.1%
OT
55.3%
62.3%
Final 5 min
47.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
50.0%
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 09:23 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 06:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 06:16 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 17:15 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 14:46 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 16:40 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:12 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:02 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 09:55 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 02:39 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 11:47 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 06:48 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 02:52 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |