Brock Nelson vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 83.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 73.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
46.0% (250)
+4.9%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
70.6% (17)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
31.8% (22)
+11.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
52.9% (654)
50.3% (175)
Away
48.9% (658)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
48.4%
48.5%
P2
54.3%
45.9%
P3
50.5%
46.5%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |