Brock Nelson vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.7% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
47.6% (189)
+2.4%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
100.0% (2)
-43.7%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
29.4% (17)
+12.6%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +43.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Nelson shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (132).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
50.4% (472)
48.5% (132)
Away
48.6% (477)
43.4% (76)
By Period
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
47.2%
51.4%
P2
53.4%
41.3%
P3
47.8%
48.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |