Brock Nelson vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 70.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
12
(30 meetings)
18
12
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
4
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
44.9% (8,714)
+2.9%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
50.3% (829)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
37.8% (875)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Nelson is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (7,357).
Nelson shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,805).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
49.8% (5,696)
46.4% (5,318)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
42.9% (5,112)
By Period
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
48.6%
45.1%
P2
48.4%
43.8%
P3
47.4%
45.2%
OT
46.4%
43.5%
Final 5 min
47.4%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 01:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 01:25 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 17:26 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 1 | 16:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 7, 2017 | 2 | 01:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2017 | 1 | 07:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2017 | 1 | 00:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 3 | 16:35 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 3 | 12:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |