Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Tavares 59.8% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 71.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 71.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Larkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Larkin
Tavares
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
6
Larkin
Tavares
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
60.9% (1,043)
-9.1%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
60.4% (278)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
47.6% (21)
-0.2%
On even strength, Tavares has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Larkin shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Home / Away
Larkin
Tavares
Home
55.6% (662)
63.5% (684)
Away
48.3% (542)
57.6% (658)
By Period
Larkin
Tavares
P1
49.9%
60.3%
P2
52.7%
60.4%
P3
53.0%
60.1%
OT
68.0%
92.3%
Final 5 min
49.3%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.3%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 03:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:35 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 13:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 2 | 04:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:46 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 13:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 04:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 15:13 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 10:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |