Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Tavares 57.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 54.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 71.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Larkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
11
(20 meetings)
9
11
Larkin
Tavares
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Larkin
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
4
Larkin
Tavares
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
5
Larkin
Tavares
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
57.5% (914)
-3.9%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
60.5% (309)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
59.1% (22)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Home / Away
Larkin
Tavares
Home
56.6% (700)
61.0% (661)
Away
52.1% (655)
55.3% (584)
By Period
Larkin
Tavares
P1
55.4%
58.6%
P2
54.7%
57.8%
P3
52.7%
58.4%
OT
59.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
54.4%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 19:03 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 17:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 05:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 19:49 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 05:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 01:51 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 07:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 08:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 00:33 | Defensive | John Tavares |