Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Tavares 56.8% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 59.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 72.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Larkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Larkin
Tavares
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
7
Larkin
Tavares
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
2
Larkin
Tavares
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
57.7% (975)
-6.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
56.0% (250)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
52.2% (23)
-4.0%
On even strength, Tavares has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Larkin
Tavares
Home
51.7% (686)
57.4% (636)
Away
53.0% (658)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Larkin
Tavares
P1
52.5%
57.5%
P2
52.7%
56.9%
P3
51.4%
57.5%
OT
61.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 02:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 15:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 16:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |