Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Tavares 57.8% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 61.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 74.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Larkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Larkin
Tavares
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
7
Larkin
Tavares
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
2
Larkin
Tavares
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (773)
59.0% (691)
-6.6%
Power Play
58.6% (220)
57.2% (173)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (146)
63.6% (11)
-16.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Larkin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (762).
Larkin shoots left. Tavares is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Larkin
Tavares
Home
51.9% (615)
58.0% (500)
Away
54.2% (524)
59.7% (375)
By Period
Larkin
Tavares
P1
52.3%
59.5%
P2
53.2%
58.5%
P3
52.6%
58.2%
OT
63.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.9%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 02:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 15:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 16:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |