Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 50 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Tavares 54.4% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 84-64 in 148 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 75.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 63.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Larkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
64
-
84
(148 meetings)
64
84
Larkin
Tavares
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
14
36
Larkin
Tavares
50 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
32
17
Larkin
Tavares
49 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
18
31
Larkin
Tavares
49 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (8,914)
54.0% (15,885)
-2.3%
Power Play
58.5% (2,099)
56.5% (4,221)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
50.1% (1,102)
50.7% (612)
-0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,773).
Larkin shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,318).
Home / Away
Larkin
Tavares
Home
54.0% (6,206)
56.1% (10,389)
Away
51.4% (5,909)
52.7% (10,358)
By Period
Larkin
Tavares
P1
52.7%
55.1%
P2
53.1%
54.1%
P3
52.1%
54.0%
OT
58.6%
56.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.7%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 02:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 15:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 16:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |