Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Tavares 57.7% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 53.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 57.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 53.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Larkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Larkin
Tavares
Last 9: Larkin 4-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Larkin
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
57.7% (998)
-5.1%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
60.5% (271)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
56.4% (39)
-0.5%
On even strength, Tavares has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Larkin
Tavares
Home
54.7% (783)
59.7% (610)
Away
54.3% (816)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Larkin
Tavares
P1
55.9%
57.2%
P2
56.1%
58.5%
P3
51.1%
59.4%
OT
66.7%
46.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
54.5%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 02:29 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 19:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 07:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:07 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 2 | 17:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 17:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |