Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Tavares 58.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 12-11 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 50.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 61.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 64.0%
36.0%
64.0%
Larkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
11
(23 meetings)
12
11
Larkin
Tavares
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
7
Larkin
Tavares
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
1
Larkin
Tavares
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin
Tavares
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
59.2% (1,035)
-3.3%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
60.0% (310)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
42.9% (7)
+3.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Larkin
Tavares
Home
56.0% (654)
57.5% (668)
Away
54.8% (639)
61.1% (684)
By Period
Larkin
Tavares
P1
54.4%
58.0%
P2
55.9%
60.1%
P3
55.2%
61.0%
OT
64.0%
27.8%
Final 5 min
53.8%
60.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
55.4%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 08:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 19:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 09:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 3 | 19:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |