Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 51.0% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 77.0%
Defensive zone
Norris 79.2%
Neutral zone
Norris 75.0%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 76.0%
76.0%
24.0%
Norris
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Norris
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Norris
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Norris
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (886)
56.6% (1,064)
-5.4%
Power Play
59.0% (83)
60.4% (260)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
38.8% (67)
54.0% (261)
-15.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Norris is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Norris shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Norris
O'Reilly
Home
55.6% (487)
54.9% (801)
Away
47.0% (549)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Norris
O'Reilly
P1
54.8%
58.0%
P2
51.3%
56.7%
P3
48.0%
55.4%
OT
33.3%
64.7%
Final 5 min
54.4%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
48.0%▬
48.5%
51.1%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 14:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 00:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |