Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 16-4 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Norris 73.7%
Defensive zone
Norris 74.8%
Neutral zone
Norris 74.8%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Norris
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
16
(20 meetings)
4
16
Norris
O'Reilly
Last 10: Norris 1-9 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
3
2
Norris
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Norris
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
11
Norris
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,089)
56.2% (15,290)
-3.7%
Power Play
53.4% (412)
58.7% (3,457)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
51.4% (2,826)
-6.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,419).
Norris shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Norris
O'Reilly
Home
53.1% (1,896)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Norris
O'Reilly
P1
55.5%
55.6%
P2
51.5%
57.0%
P3
50.1%
55.0%
OT
39.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
53.3%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 16:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 12:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 08:43 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 29, 2024 | OT | 00:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 2 | 08:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 14:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 00:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |