Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 51.9% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 58.2%
Defensive zone
Norris 71.3%
Neutral zone
Norris 62.5%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 62.0%
62.0%
38.0%
Norris
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Norris
O'Reilly
Last 9: Norris 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
2
1
Norris
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Norris
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Norris
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (542)
55.0% (1,084)
-2.8%
Power Play
54.4% (57)
56.8% (303)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (30)
40.3% (149)
+6.4%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Norris is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (423).
Norris shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Norris
O'Reilly
Home
50.7% (351)
54.8% (759)
Away
54.0% (278)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Norris
O'Reilly
P1
55.6%
55.3%
P2
49.3%
51.9%
P3
52.1%
54.2%
OT
42.9%
64.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.1%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2024 | OT | 00:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 2 | 08:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Josh Norris |