Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 48.7% vs Sturm 52.5% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 82.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 54.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 60.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Frost
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Frost
Sturm
Last 6: Frost 1-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Frost
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Frost
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (426)
54.0% (480)
-6.6%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
28.6% (7)
+35.3%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
50.0% (102)
-30.0%
On power play, Frost has a +35.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Frost is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (312).
Frost shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Frost
Sturm
Home
51.1% (221)
54.0% (287)
Away
45.9% (246)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Frost
Sturm
P1
47.5%
53.5%
P2
52.3%
51.0%
P3
44.7%
55.1%
OT
100.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
43.4%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
48.4%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 13:02 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 07:20 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |