Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Sturm 56.1% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 89.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 63.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 69.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 63.1%
63.1%
36.9%
Frost
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Frost
Sturm
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
6
2
Frost
Sturm
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
7
Frost
Sturm
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
Frost
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
57.1% (2,719)
-7.4%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
61.3% (62)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
51.0% (498)
+4.0%
On even strength, Sturm has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Frost shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Frost
Sturm
Home
51.4% (2,101)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Frost
Sturm
P1
51.2%
56.5%
P2
51.3%
54.9%
P3
48.8%
57.4%
OT
64.9%
60.6%
Final 5 min
49.0%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:39 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:35 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 13:02 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |