Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.9% vs Sturm 56.2% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 88.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 64.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 70.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Frost
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Frost
Sturm
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
6
2
Frost
Sturm
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
7
Frost
Sturm
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
Frost
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (3,418)
57.1% (2,681)
-8.1%
Power Play
55.0% (600)
61.3% (62)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
51.7% (482)
+1.1%
On even strength, Sturm has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Frost is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,654).
Frost shoots left. Sturm is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,159).
Home / Away
Frost
Sturm
Home
50.9% (1,943)
57.3% (1,595)
Away
49.0% (2,111)
55.5% (1,630)
By Period
Frost
Sturm
P1
50.3%
56.4%
P2
51.0%
55.1%
P3
48.0%
57.6%
OT
64.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
48.7%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
49.9%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:39 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:35 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 13:02 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |