Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Sturm 59.0% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 75.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 85.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 51.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Frost
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Frost
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Frost
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
60.6% (708)
-12.0%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
61.1% (18)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
56.4% (101)
-31.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Frost shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Frost
Sturm
Home
49.9% (399)
61.6% (451)
Away
49.1% (424)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Frost
Sturm
P1
51.2%
55.9%
P2
53.9%
58.9%
P3
42.7%
64.6%
OT
40.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
49.5%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |