Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Frost wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Sturm 55.2% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 73.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 73.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 56.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Frost
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Frost
Sturm
Last 7: Frost 3-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
1
Frost
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Frost
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Frost
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
56.1% (716)
-10.5%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
67.7% (31)
-21.7%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
51.1% (133)
+4.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Frost shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Frost
Sturm
Home
47.0% (440)
55.6% (412)
Away
44.8% (511)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Frost
Sturm
P1
42.5%
59.6%
P2
47.9%
52.0%
P3
46.6%
55.5%
OT
66.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
45.8%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:35 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |