Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Sturm 53.6% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 92.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 70.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 66.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Frost
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Frost
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
54.6% (271)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
54.4% (90)
+34.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +34.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Frost shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Frost
Sturm
Home
57.3% (497)
53.0% (168)
Away
56.8% (440)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Frost
Sturm
P1
60.2%
58.2%
P2
56.0%
53.2%
P3
54.8%
52.3%
OT
63.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:39 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |