Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.6% vs 55.4%). Frost wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 54.9% vs Sturm 54.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 88.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 76.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 57.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Frost
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Frost
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (521)
54.1% (233)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
59.5% (74)
+40.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +40.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Frost is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (458).
Frost shoots left. Sturm is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Frost
Sturm
Home
57.2% (339)
54.4% (149)
Away
54.0% (328)
56.3% (158)
By Period
Frost
Sturm
P1
58.2%
57.1%
P2
55.6%
55.0%
P3
52.9%
53.7%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
55.6%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 08:39 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |